Focus on Energy Issues

Over the past year (1995) I’ve grown increasingly concerned about energy issues. Something that was on everyone’s mind in America in the 1970s has become a nonissue left to technical experts to consider. Yet the fundamentals of the energy infrastructure are mostly unchanged and a return to an energy crisis situation is altogether too likely. That coupled with increasing environmental questions is the focus of this little corner of my web page, and I hope to expand this section to include relevant factums and links. Right now it is more schematic, but I hope to change that soon.

The primary energy needs (electricity, heat, transportation) of the industrialized countries are met today almost entirely by fossil fuels, principally oil but also by large amounts of coal and natural gas. For example, in 1994 the US consumed 88.9 quadrillion BTUs of energy (according to the US Energy Information Agency) roughly 38% oil, 25% natural gas, 23% coal, 8% nuclear, and 7% renewables (hydropower primarily). This is up sharply from the 70.5 quads of energy consumed in 1983, a figure achieved due to investments in efficiency made after the oil shocks of the 1970s (energy use peaked at 78.9 quads in 1979). The questions which naturally arise are whether the trend of rising energy consumption needs to be addressed, and whether the particular energy mix is appropriate. The two questions are by no means independent. Changing the mix of energy inputs will affect the consumption since different fuels can be processed with different efficiencies. But to a rough approximation we can treat the two questions separately.

Questioning the total consumption of fuels, or rather the energy intensity of our economy, is of course a valid area for debate. Few would disagree with the desire to get more work out of fuels, and in fact there has always been a general tendency toward increasing process efficiencies. Better engines and less energy intensive industrial processes have been the rule in general. However, there has been some disturbing trends. For example, for the past few years the CAFE (combined automotive fleet efficiency) has been declining, due to cars and engines getting larger on average. Consumers want larger cars and the low price of fuel is encouraging their purchase. Additionally, national electric rates have been declining somewhat due to more efficient power plants and better load management by the electric industry. However, this is expected to lead to a drop off in investments in efficiency. This trend is economic, but it may be in the national interest to discourage it. Nevertheless, I do not seriously wish to attack the specific consumption figures. The energy intensity of the US is the result of years of political and economic forces, and are probably optimal in view of the existing prices on fuels.

On the other hand, the energy mix deserves a greater scrutiny. Historically, the energy mix has changed drastically over the years. The nineteenth century was dominated by coal, and previous centuries by wood. Natural gas may likely be the dominant fuel of the next century, since it has many advantages over coal and oil and now appears to be much more plentiful than previously thought (in the U.S., use has been rising steadily since 1986, when it represented about 22% of the mix). After that, perhaps solar power, nuclear fusion, or other yet unanticipated forms of power will provide energy for our activities. If providing energy is the only concern, the world has little to worry about, as we have abundant resources of many kinds of fuels.

Yet the current energy mix can be expected to continue if the cost/benefit analysis of fuel switching is of primary consideration. Strict adherence to such analysis tends to perpetuate the existing energy mix, especially if only producing factors are considered. A larger analysis including consuming factors immediately indicates the great benefit of using energy efficiently. The US before the ’73 and ’79 oil shocks was a profligate waster of energy, but the shocks have increased our energy efficiency tremendously. “Negawatts” are now a goal for many public electric utilities, that is the providing of energy in the form of conservation. However, we still have a long way to go if we compare our energy use to European countries or Japan.

However, the use of fossil fuels is almost certainly having an adverse impact on the environment. Carbon dioxide emissions are increasing, and the CO₂ levels in the atmosphere are 50% higher today than at the beginning of the century. It is feared this may cause global warming, and it appears temperatures have been rising on average, although the reasons are still under debate. Switching to natural gas from coal and oil would decrease emissions somewhat, but chances are that more will need to be done than to allow the market to decide the pace of fuel substitution. It is for this reason that many people advocate an increased pace of change to renewable energy sources.

Renewables are not automatically better sources of energy. Burning fuelwood during previous centuries denuded Europe and led to considerable topsoil loss. However, many renewables have advantages over fossil fuels, and with the right economic impetus will begin to impact the energy market, perhaps in the first quarter of the 21st century. Without such impetus, their adoption will merely be delayed. For example, after the federal tax break ended in the mid 1980s the bottom fell out of the solar industry but it has been growing steadily ever since. Photovoltaics (PV) are still very expensive ($0.30/kWh) but their cost will probably fall by another factor of five over the next fifteen years, making them competitive with coal and gas. Wind turbines have reached the point where their expected cost per kWh is comparable with coal fired turbines in some areas of the country, and as such demand and interest in them has increased substantially.

It is fortunate that renewable sources of energy are making some progress in providing needed diversity in our energy mix. Today’s energy market is marked by tight supplies and lean inventories, a situation that hasn’t existed since the 1973 oil shocks. It is likely that a disruption in supply would cause a sudden sharp increase in prices to consumers. In the past, politicians in the U.S. have tried to shield the consumer from such shocks, but the U.S. government would be hard pressed today to do so, as the oil market in particular has fragmented greatly since the heydey of the Seven Sisters. Indeed, the early days of the Gulf War proved just how sensitive oil prices are to the political and economic stability of countries in Persian Gulf. Although it is altogether too clear what will happen under such circumstances, little has been done to try to avert such a situation. It seems clear to me that another oil shock is likely, as the primary producers are either internally troubled or externally threatened.

So both politically and environmentally, it is in our best interest to try to reduce our dependence on oil as a source of energy. The easiest way to do so would be to levy a tax on oil and oil products, raising its price relative to its competitors. The sharp increase in the cost of oil in the 1970s certainly increased the use of coal in this country, and would have increased the use of natural gas if experts had more accurately estimated the reserves. However, it is politically impossible today to even discuss new taxes on fuels. A program which encourages fuel switching within the confines of our existing fuel price structure would be less effective, but might survive the political challenges.

In conclusion, the energy situation in the world is hardly dire, but should be attracting more concern than it is. Environmental concerns alone should encourage a reduced energy intensity and more interest in renewable sources, but for various reasons this has yet to happen. Quietly, and with little fanfare, the energy situation has slowly worsened over the last decade and will continue to worsen until a shock reveals the problem to the larger public. Although I hope that day does not arrive it would be insincere to suggest that that is the likely event.

Sources for More Information

Information on U.S. consumption and production of energy is the responsibility of the Energy Information Agency, a section of the US Department of Energy. These websites include a great deal of information, but much of it is poorly organized. Caveat lectur. The Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy network provides some information on renewable sources and efficiency efforts.

Non-governmental sources of information are also available, and I’ll include them here as I become aware of them. The International Solar Energy Society is a good source for information on solar energy.

My recent interest has mostly been in photovoltaic (PV) cells, where sunlight is converted directly to electricity. Their basic physics is well understood today, see for example Photovoltaics: Unlimited Electrical Energy From the Sun for a detailed explanation of PV technology and physics. PV is a considerable commercial enterprise, with a number of companies (e.g. Solarex, Siemens Solar) producing increasing numbers of solar panels for situations in which more traditional power sources are not economic. Such cells are a mature technology, with current research primarily aimed at reducing the cost. Innovative designs with increased efficiency and lower costs are a routine product of government and industry labs which have funded basic research for many years. For example, the Centre for Photovoltaic Devices and Systems in Australia has produced some efficient thin-film photovoltaic cells recently. Other approaches to harnessing power from the sun deserve scrutiny. Solar thermal electric systems such as solar trough systems with Stirling heat engines have been built on a large scale and used in conjunction with natural gas can provide electricity competitive with combined-cycle coal plants. See A Compendium of Solar Dish/Stirling Technology for an overview. Unfortunately, institutional inertia will probably prevent the rapid increase in the use of these alternate sources for some time.

Last modified: June 23rd, 1997